Description: This paper uses a Bayesian approach to persistency to explore retirement cost projection variability. The analysis is divided into two parts. In the first part a subjective population projection model is developed, based on a beta-binomial distribution for the number of participants persisting through a given age. Probability statements regarding such items as the number of participants at a given age and the distribution of retirees are developed. The second part shows how the model might be used to generate confidence intervals for retirement cost projections. Both the single-entry-age case and the multiple-entry-age case are considered. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1979, Vol. 31.

Description: This paper demonstrates how, under the projected benefit cost methods whereby the gains are reflected in the normal cost rate, gains determined at a given valuation date are amortized over the future working lifetime of the active employees included in the valuation as of that date.

Description: This paper reviews the life cycle of a typical pension plan, examines the issues relating to its funding, and proposes a new funding approach that tries to balance the various concerns. From The Future of Pension Plan Funding and Disclosure Monograph, M-RS05-1.

Description: This presentation made at the 1975 Spring Cincinnati Joint Meeting of the Conference of Actuaries in Public Practice and Society of Actuaries addresses the following issues: proposed Audit Guide revision of Accounting Principles Board Opinion No.8 Comparability of pension costs on financial statements and Cost Accounting Standards Board proposal for pension cost under government contracts.

Description: The Retirement Plans Experience Committee (RPEC) hired Ernst & Young to perform a literature review and assessment of mortality improvement rates in the United States population.

Description: Capital Market Assumptions—The Past Performance Future Returns Debate by Jane Arnold and Jennifer Donnelly from Pension Section News, November 1998, Issue No. 38.

Description: This paper examines tandem levels of salary and interest rates and finds that the absolute level of each assumption as well as the differential are significant cost determinants for defined benefit pension plans. In forming best-estimate salary and interest rate assumptions, the actuary must reconcile the difference, if any, between the currently observed rates and the valuation assumptions. Common practice is to choose expected long-term rather than observed rates for valuation purposes. The error in this procedure is analyzed and found to be tolerable for strictly temporary discrepancies between observed rates and valuation assumptions. For situations where these discrepancies are expected to persist for some time, a need is shown for nonuniform, calendar-year assumptions or their equivalent in order to develop best-estimate assumptions. Followed by several discussion papers submitted

Description: This paper studies the variability of pension costs and fund levels under various funding methods. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1990, Vol. 1.

Description: Thomas B. Lowman's response to the article Reinventing Pension Actuarial Science by Lawrence Bader and Jeremy Gold. From The Pension Forum, January 2003, Volume 15, Issue No. 1.

Description: Brief description of articles contained in the newsletter.